MVV 1–1 Jong PSV U21: Result & Stats

MVV

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jong PSV U21

10/14/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 11De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

MVV45%

×Draw23%

Jong PSV U2132%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MVVExpected goals in this matchJong PSV U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.53

MVV

1.85

Jong PSV U21

1.53

MVV creates 21% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 149 away

1.65

creates per match

1.52

1.54

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

MVV

1.65

Jong PSV U21

1.52

allows per match

MVV

1.54

Jong PSV U21

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MVV+0.00on par

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

Jong PSV U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

MVV or draw

68%

MVV or Jong PSV U21

77%

Draw or Jong PSV U21

55%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+

25%

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals

84%

MVV 2+ goals

55%

MVV 3+ goals

28%

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

78%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

45%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)

58%

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.54 · 147 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.65 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + MVV defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

MVV scores more

45%

level

23%

Jong PSV U21 scores more

32%

MVV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "MVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff