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Mutondo Stars vs ZESCO United — Super League 2019

Mutondo Stars
Mutondo Stars
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
ZESCO United
ZESCO United
11/11/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mutondo Stars33%
×Draw32%
ZESCO United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutondo Stars
0.94
ZESCO United
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mutondo Stars
1.02
ZESCO United
1.00

allows per match

Mutondo Stars
0.96
ZESCO United
0.85

finishing

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par
ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutondo Stars ↓

ZESCO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mutondo Stars or draw
65%
Mutondo Stars or ZESCO United
68%
Draw or ZESCO United
67%

Winning margin

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+
12%
ZESCO United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals
61%
Mutondo Stars 2+ goals
24%
Mutondo Stars 3+ goals
7%
ZESCO United 1+ goals
62%
ZESCO United 2+ goals
26%
ZESCO United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)
48%
ZESCO United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutondo Stars at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutondo Stars attack 1.02 + ZESCO United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

ZESCO United attack 1.00 + Mutondo Stars defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mutondo Stars scores more
33%
level
32%
ZESCO United scores more
35%

ZESCO United at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "ZESCO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mutondo Stars 1–2 ZESCO United

ZESCO United beat Mutondo Stars 2-1 in Super League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.