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Mushuc Runa SC vs Libertad — Liga Pro 2025

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
Preview
20:00
Libertad
Libertad
7/26/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 22Estadio Bellavista
Big match
42%
Mushuc Runa SC
model favours
42%26%31%

70% of Libertad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC42%
×Draw26%
Libertad31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.40
Libertad
1.16

Mushuc Runa SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.41
Libertad
0.97

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.34
Libertad
1.39

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
69%
Mushuc Runa SC or Libertad
74%
Draw or Libertad
58%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
20%
Libertad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
75%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
41%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
17%
Libertad 1+ goals
69%
Libertad 2+ goals
32%
Libertad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
58%
Libertad (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.41 + Libertad defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Libertad attack 0.97 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
42%
level
26%
Libertad scores more
31%

Mushuc Runa SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 70% of Libertad’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Mushuc Runa SC
Defensively solid
Libertad
Balanced
48%Possession47%
72%Pass accuracy75%
14.6ShotsBiggest gap10.5
1.32xG1.37
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Mushuc Runa SCLibertad

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Mushuc Runa SC
2
Draws
2
Libertad
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 100%
2–21–21–22–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SC
LLWLD
Libertad
WDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mushuc Runa SC host Libertad

July 26, 2026: Mushuc Runa SC take on Libertad in Liga Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mushuc Runa SC host Libertad at Estadio Bellavista.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.