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Mushuc Runa SC vs El Nacional — Copa Ecuador 2022

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SCadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
El Nacional
El Nacional
Unknown 86', 75' (pen)
S. Giordana 39'
R. Carrillo 84'
W. J. Chala Rosales 45+5' (pen)
9/23/2022Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 2Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC31%
×Draw23%
El Nacional46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.47
El Nacional
1.83

El Nacional creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.83
El Nacional
2.00

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.67
El Nacional
1.11

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
El Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

El Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
54%
Mushuc Runa SC or El Nacional
77%
Draw or El Nacional
69%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
14%
El Nacional wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
77%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
43%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
18%
El Nacional 1+ goals
84%
El Nacional 2+ goals
54%
El Nacional 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
40%
El Nacional (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

El Nacional away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.83 + El Nacional defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.47

El Nacional attack 2.00 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
31%
level
23%
El Nacional scores more
46%

El Nacional at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "El Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
S. Giordana
45+5'
W. J. Chala RosalesPenalty
45+8'
47'
60'
65'
74'
75'
Penalty
81'
84'
R. Carrillo
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs El Nacional

Mushuc Runa SC beat El Nacional 3-2 in Copa Ecuador on September 23, 2022.

Goals: S. Giordana (39'), W. J. Chala Rosales (45+5' pen), ? (75' pen, 86'), R. Carrillo (84').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.