Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Musanze vs Kiyovu Sports — National Soccer League 2019

Musanze
Musanze
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kiyovu Sports
Kiyovu Sports
11/4/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 10Ubworoherane Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Musanze40%
×Draw30%
Kiyovu Sports30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musanze
1.13
Kiyovu Sports
0.93

Musanze creates 22% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 96 away

creates per match

Musanze
1.15
Kiyovu Sports
1.07

allows per match

Musanze
0.78
Kiyovu Sports
1.10

finishing

Musanze+0.00on par
Kiyovu Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musanze ↓

Kiyovu Sports →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Musanze or draw
70%
Musanze or Kiyovu Sports
70%
Draw or Kiyovu Sports
60%

Winning margin

Musanze wins by 2+
17%
Kiyovu Sports wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Musanze 1+ goals
68%
Musanze 2+ goals
31%
Musanze 3+ goals
11%
Kiyovu Sports 1+ goals
61%
Kiyovu Sports 2+ goals
24%
Kiyovu Sports 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Musanze (draw refunded)
57%
Kiyovu Sports (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musanze at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Kiyovu Sports away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musanze attack 1.15 + Kiyovu Sports defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kiyovu Sports attack 1.07 + Musanze defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Musanze scores more
40%
level
30%
Kiyovu Sports scores more
30%

Musanze at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Musanze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Musanze vs Kiyovu Sports

Musanze beat Kiyovu Sports 1-0 in National Soccer League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ubworoherane Football Stadium in Musanze.