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Musa vs MP — Suomen Cup 2018

Musa
Musa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
MP
MP
2/7/2020Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 3Karhuhalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Musa27%
×Draw19%
MP54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musa
1.71
MP
2.44

MP creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Musa
1.90
MP
3.47

allows per match

Musa
1.40
MP
1.53

finishing

Musa+0.00on par
MP+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musa ↓

MP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Musa or draw
46%
Musa or MP
81%
Draw or MP
73%

Winning margin

Musa wins by 2+
13%
MP wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Musa 1+ goals
82%
Musa 2+ goals
51%
Musa 3+ goals
24%
MP 1+ goals
91%
MP 2+ goals
70%
MP 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Musa (draw refunded)
34%
MP (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musa at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

MP away — creates 3.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musa attack 1.90 + MP defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

MP attack 3.47 + Musa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Musa scores more
27%
level
19%
MP scores more
54%

MP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Musa 0–3 MP

MP beat Musa 3-0 in Suomen Cup on February 7, 2020.

The match was played at Karhuhalli in Pori.