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Musa vs FF Jaro — Suomen Cup 2018

Musa
Musa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FF Jaro
FF Jaro
1/26/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 1Karhuhalli (Pori)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Musa36%
×Draw22%
FF Jaro42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musa
1.71
FF Jaro
1.88

FF Jaro creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Musa
1.90
FF Jaro
2.35

allows per match

Musa
1.40
FF Jaro
1.53

finishing

Musa+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musa ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Musa or draw
58%
Musa or FF Jaro
78%
Draw or FF Jaro
64%

Winning margin

Musa wins by 2+
18%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Musa 1+ goals
82%
Musa 2+ goals
51%
Musa 3+ goals
24%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
85%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
56%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Musa (draw refunded)
46%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musa at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musa attack 1.90 + FF Jaro defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

FF Jaro attack 2.35 + Musa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Musa scores more
36%
level
22%
FF Jaro scores more
42%

FF Jaro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Musa vs FF Jaro

Musa and FF Jaro drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Karhuhalli (Pori).