Muravera vs Team Nuova Florida

Muravera

PST

14:00

Team Nuova Florida

3/29/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 29Campo Sportivo di Muravera (Muravera)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Muravera41%

×Draw25%

Team Nuova Florida33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MuraveraExpected goals in this matchTeam Nuova Florida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.29

Muravera

1.47

Team Nuova Florida

1.29

Muravera creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.53

creates per match

1.24

1.33

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Muravera

1.53

Team Nuova Florida

1.24

allows per match

Muravera

1.33

Team Nuova Florida

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muravera+0.00on par

Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muravera ↓

Team Nuova Florida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Muravera or draw

67%

Muravera or Team Nuova Florida

75%

Draw or Team Nuova Florida

59%

Winning margin

Muravera wins by 2+

20%

Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Muravera 1+ goals

77%

Muravera 2+ goals

43%

Muravera 3+ goals

18%

Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals

72%

Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals

37%

Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Muravera (draw refunded)

55%

Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muravera at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muravera attack 1.53 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Muravera defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Muravera scores more

41%

level

25%

Team Nuova Florida scores more

33%

Muravera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Muravera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff