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Mura vs Radomlje — 1. SNL 2026

Mura
Mura
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Radomlje
Radomlje
2/25/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 23Mestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Mura46%
×Draw26%
Radomlje28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mura
1.52
Radomlje
1.12

Mura creates 36% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mura
1.42
Radomlje
1.10

allows per match

Mura
1.14
Radomlje
1.62

finishing

Mura+0.00on par
Radomlje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mura ↓

Radomlje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mura or draw
72%
Mura or Radomlje
74%
Draw or Radomlje
54%

Winning margin

Mura wins by 2+
23%
Radomlje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mura 1+ goals
78%
Mura 2+ goals
45%
Mura 3+ goals
20%
Radomlje 1+ goals
67%
Radomlje 2+ goals
31%
Radomlje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mura (draw refunded)
62%
Radomlje (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mura at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.14 · 125 matches

Radomlje away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.62 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mura attack 1.42 + Radomlje defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Radomlje attack 1.10 + Mura defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mura scores more
46%
level
26%
Radomlje scores more
28%

Mura at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Mura 0–0 Radomlje

Mura and Radomlje drew 0-0 in 1. SNL on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Mestni Štadion Fazanerija in Murska Sobota.