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Mura vs NK Domzale — 1. SNL 2026

Mura
Mura
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
12/10/20231. SNL1. SNL · Round 19Mestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Mura44%
×Draw25%
NK Domzale30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mura
1.54
NK Domzale
1.23

Mura creates 25% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 118 away

creates per match

Mura
1.42
NK Domzale
1.33

allows per match

Mura
1.14
NK Domzale
1.67

finishing

Mura+0.00on par
NK Domzale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mura ↓

NK Domzale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mura or draw
70%
Mura or NK Domzale
75%
Draw or NK Domzale
56%

Winning margin

Mura wins by 2+
22%
NK Domzale wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mura 1+ goals
79%
Mura 2+ goals
45%
Mura 3+ goals
20%
NK Domzale 1+ goals
71%
NK Domzale 2+ goals
35%
NK Domzale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mura (draw refunded)
59%
NK Domzale (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mura at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.14 · 125 matches

NK Domzale away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mura attack 1.42 + NK Domzale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

NK Domzale attack 1.33 + Mura defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mura scores more
44%
level
25%
NK Domzale scores more
30%

Mura at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Mura 1–0 NK Domzale

Mura beat NK Domzale 1-0 in 1. SNL on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Mestni Štadion Fazanerija in Murska Sobota.