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Mura vs Maribor — 1. SNL 2026

Mura
Mura
FT
0 – 2
Maribor
Maribor
2/18/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 21Mestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Mura36%
×Draw26%
Maribor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mura
1.30
Maribor
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 125 away

creates per match

Mura
1.42
Maribor
1.53

allows per match

Mura
1.14
Maribor
1.19

finishing

Mura+0.00on par
Maribor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mura ↓

Maribor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mura or draw
62%
Mura or Maribor
74%
Draw or Maribor
64%

Winning margin

Mura wins by 2+
16%
Maribor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mura 1+ goals
73%
Mura 2+ goals
37%
Mura 3+ goals
14%
Maribor 1+ goals
74%
Maribor 2+ goals
38%
Maribor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mura (draw refunded)
49%
Maribor (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mura at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.14 · 125 matches

Maribor away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.19 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mura attack 1.42 + Maribor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Maribor attack 1.53 + Mura defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mura scores more
36%
level
26%
Maribor scores more
38%

Maribor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maribor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Mura 0–2 Maribor

Maribor beat Mura 2-0 in 1. SNL on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Mestni Štadion Fazanerija in Murska Sobota.