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Municipal vs Iztapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Municipal
Municipal
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Iztapa
Iztapa
8/14/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 4Estadio El Trébol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Municipal65%
×Draw20%
Iztapa14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal
2.04
Iztapa
0.83

Municipal creates 146% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 82 away

creates per match

Municipal
1.97
Iztapa
0.95

allows per match

Municipal
0.71
Iztapa
2.12

finishing

Municipal+0.00on par
Iztapa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal ↓

Iztapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Municipal or draw
86%
Municipal or Iztapa
80%
Draw or Iztapa
35%

Winning margin

Municipal wins by 2+
41%
Iztapa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Municipal 1+ goals
87%
Municipal 2+ goals
60%
Municipal 3+ goals
33%
Iztapa 1+ goals
56%
Iztapa 2+ goals
20%
Iztapa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Municipal (draw refunded)
82%
Iztapa (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.71 · 159 matches

Iztapa away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal attack 1.97 + Iztapa defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.04

Iztapa attack 0.95 + Municipal defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Municipal scores more
65%
level
20%
Iztapa scores more
14%

Municipal at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Municipal vs Iztapa

Municipal and Iztapa drew 2-2 in Liga Nacional on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Trébol in Ciudad de Guatemala.