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Mufulira Wanderers vs Power Dynamos — Super League 2019

Mufulira Wanderers
Mufulira Wanderers
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
12/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Shinde Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mufulira Wanderers33%
×Draw32%
Power Dynamos35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mufulira Wanderers
0.93
Power Dynamos
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mufulira Wanderers
1.08
Power Dynamos
1.18

allows per match

Mufulira Wanderers
0.73
Power Dynamos
0.78

finishing

Mufulira Wanderers+0.00on par
Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mufulira Wanderers ↓

Power Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mufulira Wanderers or draw
65%
Mufulira Wanderers or Power Dynamos
68%
Draw or Power Dynamos
67%

Winning margin

Mufulira Wanderers wins by 2+
12%
Power Dynamos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mufulira Wanderers 1+ goals
61%
Mufulira Wanderers 2+ goals
24%
Mufulira Wanderers 3+ goals
7%
Power Dynamos 1+ goals
61%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
25%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mufulira Wanderers (draw refunded)
49%
Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mufulira Wanderers at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Power Dynamos away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mufulira Wanderers attack 1.08 + Power Dynamos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Power Dynamos attack 1.18 + Mufulira Wanderers defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mufulira Wanderers scores more
33%
level
32%
Power Dynamos scores more
35%

Power Dynamos at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mufulira Wanderers vs Power Dynamos

Power Dynamos beat Mufulira Wanderers 3-1 in Super League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Shinde Stadium in Mufulira.