Liverpool 3–2 Tottenham: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.12

Liverpool

1.77

Tottenham

1.12

Liverpool creates 58% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.93

creates per match

1.12

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Tottenham

1.62

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

76%

Liverpool or Tottenham

77%

Draw or Tottenham

48%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

29%

Tottenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

83%

Liverpool 2+ goals

53%

Liverpool 3+ goals

26%

Tottenham 1+ goals

67%

Tottenham 2+ goals

31%

Tottenham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

69%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Liverpool scores more

52%

level

23%

Tottenham scores more

24%

Liverpool at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. Marković↳ D. Sturridge

24'

26'

28'

40'

45'

53'

S. GerrardPenalty

60'

Steven Gerrard

61'

M. Dembélé↳ H. Kane

63'

Mousa Dembélé

68'

D. Lovren← S. Gerrard

69'

Paulinho← R. Mason

73'

Kyle Walker

74'

M. Balotelli← D. Sturridge

79'

A. Lallana← L. Marković

81'

N. Chadli← C. Eriksen

83'

M. Balotelli↳ A. Lallana

85'

Soldado← M. Dembélé

88'

Paulinho

90'

Harry Kane

Possession

Statistics

LiverpoolTottenham

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Corners7

12Fouls17

Shots

8On Target5

4Off Target4

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls17

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Premier League: Liverpool 3–2 Tottenham

Liverpool beat Tottenham 3-2 in Premier League on February 10, 2015.

Goals: L. Marković (15'), H. Kane (26'), S. Gerrard (53' pen), M. Dembélé (61'), M. Balotelli (83').

Tottenham dominated possession with 55% of the ball.

The match was played at Anfield in Liverpool.

Liverpool vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Statistics

Premier League: Liverpool 3–2 Tottenham