MSV Duisburg U19 1–0 Viktoria Köln U19

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Köln U19

J. Maluze 75'

11/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 9BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1945%

×Draw23%

Viktoria Köln U1932%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.46

MSV Duisburg U19

1.78

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 67 away

1.57

creates per match

1.46

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.57

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.46

Viktoria Köln U19

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

68%

MSV Duisburg U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

77%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

55%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

83%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

53%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

26%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

77%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

43%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.78

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.46 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

45%

level

23%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

32%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

H. Anhari← D. Wieczorek

75'

J. Maluze

76'

K. Karaduman← E. Işık

76'

K. Taskale← K. Örgün

76'

R. Aigbekaen← F. Fili

80'

L. Linnig← L. Blažević

81'

O. Ichue← J. Walther

88'

D. Zogu← N. Kashama

MSV

Viktoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Vural

65'▲H. Anhari←▼D. Wieczorek

80'▲L. Linnig←▼L. Blažević

88'▲D. Zogu←▼N. Kashama

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

AnhariLinnigZoguKurtBaghSchübelMeyer

Manager: M. Wilhelm

76'▲K. Karaduman←▼E. Işık

76'▲K. Taskale←▼K. Örgün

76'▲R. Aigbekaen←▼F. Fili

81'▲O. Ichue←▼J. Walther

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

KaradumanTaskaleAigbekaenIchueDennerleinUdelhovenMasry