MSV Duisburg U19 4–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

MSV Duisburg U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

B. Yavuz 81'

K. Harbering 45+2'

L. Linnig 17'

J. Symalla 7'

M. Quiala Tito 90+3', 61'

B. Eze 86'

8/13/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 1BZA Westender Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

MSV Duisburg U1937%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1939%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MSV Duisburg U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

MSV Duisburg U19

1.52

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 67 away

1.57

creates per match

1.67

1.46

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.57

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.67

allows per match

MSV Duisburg U19

1.46

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Duisburg U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

MSV Duisburg U19 or draw

61%

MSV Duisburg U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

76%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

63%

Winning margin

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

18%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

78%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

45%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

79%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

46%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Duisburg U19 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.57 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.67 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

37%

level

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

39%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

17'

45+2'

60'

60'

S. Vu← A. Holl

61'

M. Quiala Tito

62'

S. Kiyau← E. Rüzgar

74'

L. Caliskan← D. Savic

74'

M. Len← J. Starek

77'

L. Heck← E. Moussa

77'

T. Croonen← J. Bugenhagen

81'

B. Yavuz

84'

S. Cankirli← K. Affo

86'

Z. Anhari← J. Symalla

86'

B. Eze

90+3'

M. Quiala Tito

MSV

Fortuna

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Symalla

⚽

Linnig

Zogu

Manager: E. Vural

62'▲S. Kiyau←▼E. Rüzgar

77'▲L. Heck←▼E. Moussa

77'▲T. Croonen←▼J. Bugenhagen

86'▲Z. Anhari←▼J. Symalla

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

KiyauHeckCroonenAnhariGebesAdamidisSadlek

Manager: J. Langeneke

60'▲K. Erik←▼G. Imoijeza

60'▲S. Vu←▼A. Holl

74'▲L. Caliskan←▼D. Savic

74'▲M. Len←▼J. Starek

84'▲S. Cankirli←▼K. Affo

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

ErikVuCaliskanLenCankirliEngelmannCzakó

U19 Bundesliga: MSV Duisburg U19 4–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on August 13, 2023.

Goals: J. Symalla (7'), L. Linnig (17'), K. Harbering (45+2'), M. Quiala Tito (61', 90+3'), B. Yavuz (81'), B. Eze (86').

The match was played at BZA Westender Straße in Duisburg.

MSV Duisburg U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: MSV Duisburg U19 4–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19