MP vs PK-35: Preview & Prediction | Ykkösliiga

MP

Preview

13:00

PK-35

8/29/2026

Ykkösliiga · Group StageMikkelin Urheilupuisto

Big match

53%

PK-35

model favours

23%24%53%

PK-35 are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MP23%

×Draw24%

PK-3553%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MPExpected goals in this matchPK-35

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.67

MP

1.02

PK-35

1.67

PK-35 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

1.05

creates per match

1.29

2.05

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

MP

1.05

PK-35

1.29

allows per match

MP

2.05

PK-35

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MP+0.00on par

PK-35+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

PK-35 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

MP or draw

47%

MP or PK-35

76%

Draw or PK-35

77%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+

8%

PK-35 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals

64%

MP 2+ goals

27%

MP 3+ goals

8%

PK-35 1+ goals

81%

PK-35 2+ goals

50%

PK-35 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)

31%

PK-35 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

PK-35 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.05 + PK-35 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

PK-35 attack 1.29 + MP defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

MP scores more

23%

level

24%

PK-35 scores more

53%

PK-35 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 92% of MP’s matches
MP score first in only 25% of matches
PK-35 have scored in 9 games running
PK-35 score first in only 29% of matches
MP raise their game against the top half — 27% wins vs the upper half, only 23% vs the lower
PK-35 have won 7 of the last 10 meetings