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MP vs JIPPO — Ykkösliiga 2026

MP
MP
Preview
13:00
JIPPO
JIPPO
9/19/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageMikkelin Urheilupuisto
Big match
54%
JIPPO
model favours
22%23%54%

JIPPO are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MP22%
×Draw23%
JIPPO54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP
1.06
JIPPO
1.79

JIPPO creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 35 away

creates per match

MP
1.05
JIPPO
1.54

allows per match

MP
2.05
JIPPO
1.06

finishing

MP+0.00on par
JIPPO+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

JIPPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

MP or draw
46%
MP or JIPPO
77%
Draw or JIPPO
78%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+
8%
JIPPO wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals
65%
MP 2+ goals
29%
MP 3+ goals
9%
JIPPO 1+ goals
83%
JIPPO 2+ goals
53%
JIPPO 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)
29%
JIPPO (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

JIPPO away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.05 + JIPPO defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

JIPPO attack 1.54 + MP defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MP scores more
22%
level
23%
JIPPO scores more
54%

JIPPO at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 92% of MP’s matches
  • MP score first in only 25% of matches
  • JIPPO score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of JIPPO’s matches
  • MP raise their game against the top half — 27% wins vs the upper half, only 23% vs the lower
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
MP
DLDWL
JIPPO
DWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MP face JIPPO (Ykkösliiga)

Ykkösliiga returns with MP hosting JIPPO. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

MP host JIPPO at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.