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MP vs JIPPO — Suomen Cup 2018

MP
MP
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
JIPPO
JIPPO
3/3/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Urpolan tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MP34%
×Draw21%
JIPPO44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP
1.75
JIPPO
2.00

JIPPO creates 14% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

MP
1.50
JIPPO
2.50

allows per match

MP
1.50
JIPPO
2.00

finishing

MP+0.00on par
JIPPO+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

JIPPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

MP or draw
56%
MP or JIPPO
79%
Draw or JIPPO
66%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+
17%
JIPPO wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals
83%
MP 2+ goals
52%
MP 3+ goals
25%
JIPPO 1+ goals
86%
JIPPO 2+ goals
59%
JIPPO 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)
44%
JIPPO (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

JIPPO away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.50 + JIPPO defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

JIPPO attack 2.50 + MP defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

MP scores more
34%
level
21%
JIPPO scores more
44%

JIPPO at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MP vs JIPPO

MP beat JIPPO 5-0 in Suomen Cup on March 3, 2021.

The match was played at Urpolan tekonurmi in Mikkeli.