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MP vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

MP
MP
Preview
16:00
JäPS
JäPS
10/17/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageMikkelin Urheilupuisto
Big match
43%
JäPS
model favours
34%23%43%

JäPS score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

MP34%
×Draw23%
JäPS43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MP
1.54
JäPS
1.76

JäPS creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

MP
1.05
JäPS
1.47

allows per match

MP
2.05
JäPS
2.03

finishing

MP+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MP ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

MP or draw
57%
MP or JäPS
77%
Draw or JäPS
66%

Winning margin

MP wins by 2+
16%
JäPS wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

MP 1+ goals
79%
MP 2+ goals
45%
MP 3+ goals
20%
JäPS 1+ goals
83%
JäPS 2+ goals
52%
JäPS 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

MP (draw refunded)
44%
JäPS (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MP at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MP attack 1.05 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.54

JäPS attack 1.47 + MP defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

MP scores more
34%
level
23%
JäPS scores more
43%

JäPS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 92% of MP’s matches
  • MP score first in only 25% of matches
  • MP raise their game against the top half — 27% wins vs the upper half, only 23% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
MP
DLDWL
JäPS
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MP face JäPS (Ykkösliiga)

Ykkösliiga returns with MP hosting JäPS. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

MP host JäPS at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.