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Moyola Park vs Dungannon Swifts — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Preview
13:00
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
8/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
69%
Dungannon Swifts
model favours
14%16%69%

73% of Moyola Park’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moyola Park14%
×Draw16%
Dungannon Swifts69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyola Park
1.13
Dungannon Swifts
2.67

Dungannon Swifts creates 136% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Moyola Park
1.00
Dungannon Swifts
3.00

allows per match

Moyola Park
2.33
Dungannon Swifts
1.25

finishing

Moyola Park+0.00on par
Dungannon Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyola Park ↓

Dungannon Swifts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Moyola Park or draw
31%
Moyola Park or Dungannon Swifts
84%
Draw or Dungannon Swifts
86%

Winning margin

Moyola Park wins by 2+
5%
Dungannon Swifts wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Moyola Park 1+ goals
68%
Moyola Park 2+ goals
31%
Moyola Park 3+ goals
11%
Dungannon Swifts 1+ goals
93%
Dungannon Swifts 2+ goals
74%
Dungannon Swifts 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Moyola Park (draw refunded)
17%
Dungannon Swifts (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyola Park at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Dungannon Swifts away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyola Park attack 1.00 + Dungannon Swifts defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dungannon Swifts attack 3.00 + Moyola Park defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Moyola Park scores more
14%
level
16%
Dungannon Swifts scores more
69%

Dungannon Swifts at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dungannon Swifts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Park
LLLWL
Swifts
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Moyola Park host Dungannon Swifts

August 1, 2026: Moyola Park take on Dungannon Swifts in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.