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Moyale Barracks vs Red Lions — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
Preview
12:30
Red Lions
Red Lions
1/31/2027Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28
Big match
51%
Moyale Barracks
model favours
51%28%21%

90% of Moyale Barracks’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Moyale Barracks51%
×Draw28%
Red Lions21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.35
Red Lions
0.75

Moyale Barracks creates 80% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 49 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.23
Red Lions
0.82

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.69
Red Lions
1.47

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

Red Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
79%
Moyale Barracks or Red Lions
72%
Draw or Red Lions
49%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
25%
Red Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
74%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
39%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
15%
Red Lions 1+ goals
53%
Red Lions 2+ goals
17%
Red Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
71%
Red Lions (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 81 matches

Red Lions away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.23 + Red Lions defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Red Lions attack 0.82 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
51%
level
28%
Red Lions scores more
21%

Moyale Barracks at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 10% of Moyale Barracks’s matches
  • Moyale Barracks score first in only 30% of matches
  • Red Lions win just 17% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Barracks
LDWD
Lions
WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Moyale Barracks host Red Lions

January 31, 2027: Moyale Barracks take on Red Lions in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.