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Moyale Barracks vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks
FT
1 – 1
CIVO United
CIVO United
5/22/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Mzuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Moyale Barracks44%
×Draw30%
CIVO United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moyale Barracks
1.21
CIVO United
0.85

Moyale Barracks creates 42% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 73 away

creates per match

Moyale Barracks
1.25
CIVO United
1.00

allows per match

Moyale Barracks
0.71
CIVO United
1.18

finishing

Moyale Barracks+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moyale Barracks ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moyale Barracks or draw
74%
Moyale Barracks or CIVO United
70%
Draw or CIVO United
56%

Winning margin

Moyale Barracks wins by 2+
20%
CIVO United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Moyale Barracks 1+ goals
70%
Moyale Barracks 2+ goals
34%
Moyale Barracks 3+ goals
12%
CIVO United 1+ goals
57%
CIVO United 2+ goals
21%
CIVO United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Moyale Barracks (draw refunded)
63%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moyale Barracks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.71 · 76 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moyale Barracks attack 1.25 + CIVO United defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

CIVO United attack 1.00 + Moyale Barracks defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moyale Barracks scores more
44%
level
30%
CIVO United scores more
26%

Moyale Barracks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Moyale Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Moyale Barracks 1–1 CIVO United

Moyale Barracks and CIVO United drew 1-1 in Super League on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Mzuzu Stadium in Mzuzu.