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Mouloudia Oujda vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola Pro 2025

Mouloudia Oujda
Mouloudia Oujda
FT
0 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
3/17/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 22Stade Municipal (Oujda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda42%
×Draw29%
Rapide Oued ZEM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mouloudia Oujda
1.20
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.94

Mouloudia Oujda creates 28% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.72

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda
1.17
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.23

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw
71%
Mouloudia Oujda or Rapide Oued ZEM
71%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
58%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+
18%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals
70%
Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals
34%
Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals
12%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
61%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
24%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)
59%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 90 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.17 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more
42%
level
29%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
29%

Mouloudia Oujda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mouloudia Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mouloudia Oujda vs Rapide Oued ZEM

Mouloudia Oujda and Rapide Oued ZEM drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Oujda).