Mouloudia Oujda 1–2 FAR Rabat: Result & Stats

Mouloudia Oujda

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FAR Rabat

2/20/2021

Botola Pro · Round 7Stade d'Honneur d'Oujda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Mouloudia Oujda29%

×Draw28%

FAR Rabat43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mouloudia OujdaExpected goals in this matchFAR Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.29

Mouloudia Oujda

1.01

FAR Rabat

1.29

FAR Rabat creates 28% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 118 away

1.10

creates per match

1.39

1.20

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.10

FAR Rabat

1.39

allows per match

Mouloudia Oujda

1.20

FAR Rabat

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mouloudia Oujda+0.00on par

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mouloudia Oujda ↓

FAR Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mouloudia Oujda or draw

57%

Mouloudia Oujda or FAR Rabat

72%

Draw or FAR Rabat

71%

Winning margin

Mouloudia Oujda wins by 2+

11%

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mouloudia Oujda 1+ goals

64%

Mouloudia Oujda 2+ goals

27%

Mouloudia Oujda 3+ goals

8%

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

72%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

37%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mouloudia Oujda (draw refunded)

40%

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mouloudia Oujda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mouloudia Oujda attack 1.10 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

FAR Rabat attack 1.39 + Mouloudia Oujda defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mouloudia Oujda scores more

29%

level

28%

FAR Rabat scores more

43%

FAR Rabat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff