Motor Lublin 2–2 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Motor Lublin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wisla Plock

P. Szarek 63'

P. Ceglarz 2'

K. Janus 90'

Ł. Sekulski 17' (pen)

11/5/2023

I Liga · Round 14Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Motor Lublin42%

×Draw25%

Wisla Plock34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motor LublinExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.37

Motor Lublin

1.56

Wisla Plock

1.37

Motor Lublin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.65

creates per match

1.21

1.53

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Motor Lublin

1.65

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Motor Lublin

1.53

Wisla Plock

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw

66%

Motor Lublin or Wisla Plock

75%

Draw or Wisla Plock

58%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

21%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

79%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

46%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

21%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

75%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

40%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

56%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.65 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Motor Lublin defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Motor Lublin scores more

42%

level

25%

Wisla Plock scores more

34%

Motor Lublin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

P. Ceglarz

17'

Ł. SekulskiPenalty

40'

S. Rudol

45+1'

S. Rudol

45+1'

S. Rudol

45+4'

P. Szarek← M. Żebrakowski

46'

K. Wełniak← K. Wojtkowski

54'

K. Palacz

57'

F. Luberecki← K. Palacz

57'

M. Scalet← M. Gąsior

62'

L. Budzilek

63'

P. Szarek

65'

É. Thiakane← D. Kocyła

65'

R. Cielemęcki← P. Chrupałła

72'

J. Lis← P. Ceglarz

76'

K. Janus← F. Hiszpański

83'

84'

86'

90+2'

90'

Motor

Wisla

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Goncalo Feio

45+4'▲P. Szarek←▼M. Żebrakowski

46'▲K. Wełniak←▼K. Wojtkowski

57'▲F. Luberecki←▼K. Palacz

57'▲M. Scalet←▼M. Gąsior

72'▲J. Lis←▼P. Ceglarz

Motor Lublin substitutes

SzarekWełniakLubereckiScaletLisStaszakRosaŚpiewakRybicki

Manager: D. Żuraw

65'▲É. Thiakane←▼D. Kocyła

65'▲R. Cielemęcki←▼P. Chrupałła

76'▲K. Janus←▼F. Hiszpański

84'▲S. Strózik←▼J. Grič

Wisla Plock substitutes

ThiakaneCielemęckiJanusStrózikLesniakMaślakLaskowskiSrećkovićZieliński