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Khatlon vs Fayzkand — Vysshaya Liga 2020

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
1 – 1
Fayzkand
Fayzkand
P. Baki-Akhunov 69'
D. Barotov 59'
6/27/2020Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 7Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Khatlon39%
×Draw28%
Fayzkand33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.25
Fayzkand
1.13

Khatlon creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 3 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.49
Fayzkand
1.33

allows per match

Khatlon
0.92
Fayzkand
1.00

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Fayzkand+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Fayzkand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
67%
Khatlon or Fayzkand
72%
Draw or Fayzkand
61%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
17%
Fayzkand wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
71%
Khatlon 2+ goals
36%
Khatlon 3+ goals
13%
Fayzkand 1+ goals
68%
Fayzkand 2+ goals
31%
Fayzkand 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
54%
Fayzkand (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Fayzkand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.49 + Fayzkand defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fayzkand attack 1.33 + Khatlon defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khatlon scores more
39%
level
28%
Fayzkand scores more
33%

Khatlon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
D. Barotov
69'
P. Baki-Akhunov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Fayzkand

Khatlon and Fayzkand drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on June 27, 2020.

Goals: D. Barotov (59'), P. Baki-Akhunov (69').

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.