Motherwell 1–2 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats

Motherwell

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

ST Johnstone

E. Moses 90+4'

A. Sidibeh 45+1'

N. Clark 18'

5/19/2024

Premiership · Relegation Round - 5Fir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Motherwell45%

×Draw26%

ST Johnstone29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotherwellExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.15

Motherwell

1.49

ST Johnstone

1.15

Motherwell creates 30% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 115 away

1.47

creates per match

0.93

1.37

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Motherwell

1.47

ST Johnstone

0.93

allows per match

Motherwell

1.37

ST Johnstone

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motherwell+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw

71%

Motherwell or ST Johnstone

74%

Draw or ST Johnstone

55%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+

22%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals

77%

Motherwell 2+ goals

44%

Motherwell 3+ goals

19%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

68%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

32%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)

61%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.37 · 130 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 1.47 + ST Johnstone defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.49

ST Johnstone attack 0.93 + Motherwell defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Motherwell scores more

45%

level

26%

ST Johnstone scores more

29%

Motherwell at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Gordon

ST Johnstone · D

7.5

Match Events

18'

N. Clark↳ G. Carey

45+1'

A. Sidibeh

46'

J. Vale← H. Paton

52'

David Keltjens

64'

C. Butcher← B. Mugabi

64'

E. Moses← L. Miller

64'

A. Considine← N. Clark

74'

B. Mbunga Kimpioka← A. Sidibeh

77'

M. Ferrie← S. Nicholson

77'

L. Ross← D. Zdravkovski

90+3'

S. May← M. Smith

90+4'

E. Moses↳ G. Gent

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MotherwellST

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots9

7Corners3

7Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target4

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

498Total Passes273

400Accurate Passes181

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1