Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Motherwell vs Kilmarnock — Premiership 2018

Motherwell
Motherwell
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
2/3/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 24Fir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Motherwell56%
×Draw24%
Kilmarnock20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motherwell
1.69
Kilmarnock
0.90

Motherwell creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Motherwell
1.52
Kilmarnock
0.96

allows per match

Motherwell
0.83
Kilmarnock
1.86

finishing

Motherwell-0.10scores less
Kilmarnock+0.21scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw
80%
Motherwell or Kilmarnock
76%
Draw or Kilmarnock
44%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+
31%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals
82%
Motherwell 2+ goals
50%
Motherwell 3+ goals
24%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
59%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
23%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)
74%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.86 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 1.52 + Kilmarnock defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kilmarnock attack 0.96 + Motherwell defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Motherwell scores more
56%
level
24%
Kilmarnock scores more
20%

Motherwell at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Motherwell 1–1 Kilmarnock

Motherwell and Kilmarnock drew 1-1 in Premiership on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Fir Park in Motherwell.