Motherwell 0–0 Dundee Utd: Result & Stats

Motherwell

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dundee Utd

9/3/2022

Premiership · 1st Phase - 6Fir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Motherwell55%

×Draw24%

Dundee Utd21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotherwellExpected goals in this matchDundee Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.94

Motherwell

1.69

Dundee Utd

0.94

Motherwell creates 80% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.04

0.83

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Motherwell

1.63

Dundee Utd

1.04

allows per match

Motherwell

0.83

Dundee Utd

1.74

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Motherwell+0.01on par

Dundee Utd+0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

Dundee Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw

79%

Motherwell or Dundee Utd

76%

Draw or Dundee Utd

45%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+

30%

Dundee Utd wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals

82%

Motherwell 2+ goals

50%

Motherwell 3+ goals

24%

Dundee Utd 1+ goals

61%

Dundee Utd 2+ goals

24%

Dundee Utd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)

72%

Dundee Utd (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.83 · 14 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.74 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 1.63 + Dundee Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dundee Utd attack 1.04 + Motherwell defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Motherwell scores more

55%

level

24%

Dundee Utd scores more

21%

Motherwell at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Eriksson

Dundee Utd · G

8.2

Match Events

2'

Jamie McGrath

55'

Callum Slattery

61'

G. Middleton← T. Watt

69'

Paul McGinn

73'

R. Aarons← R. Tierney

73'

S. McKinstry← J. Efford

74'

C. Sibbald← D. Levitt

85'

C. Shields← B. Spittal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MotherwellDundee

Overview

66%Possession34%

21Total Shots11

3Corners6

16Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots11

5On Target3

8Off Target3

8Blocked5

15Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

485Total Passes256

384Accurate Passes152

79%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2