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Motherwell vs Dundee — Premiership 2018

Motherwell
Motherwell
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Dundee
Dundee
12/2/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 15Fir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Motherwell52%
×Draw25%
Dundee23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motherwell
1.59
Dundee
0.97

Motherwell creates 64% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Motherwell
1.52
Dundee
1.10

allows per match

Motherwell
0.83
Dundee
1.67

finishing

Motherwell-0.10scores less
Dundee-0.39scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

Dundee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw
77%
Motherwell or Dundee
75%
Draw or Dundee
48%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+
27%
Dundee wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals
80%
Motherwell 2+ goals
47%
Motherwell 3+ goals
21%
Dundee 1+ goals
62%
Dundee 2+ goals
25%
Dundee 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)
69%
Dundee (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Dundee away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 1.52 + Dundee defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dundee attack 1.10 + Motherwell defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Motherwell scores more
52%
level
25%
Dundee scores more
23%

Motherwell at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Motherwell 3–3 Dundee

Motherwell and Dundee drew 3-3 in Premiership on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Fir Park in Motherwell.