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Motema Pembe vs Simba — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
CANC
00:00
Simba
Simba
3/18/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Motema Pembe48%
×Draw28%
Simba24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.33
Simba
0.86

Motema Pembe creates 55% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 89 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Simba
0.84

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Simba
1.25

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
76%
Motema Pembe or Simba
72%
Draw or Simba
52%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
22%
Simba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
74%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
38%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
15%
Simba 1+ goals
58%
Simba 2+ goals
21%
Simba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
66%
Simba (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Simba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Simba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Simba attack 0.84 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
48%
level
28%
Simba scores more
24%

Motema Pembe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Motema Pembe vs Simba — Match Preview

Motema Pembe face Simba on March 18, 2020 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Motema Pembe host Simba at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.