Motema Pembe 0–0 Renaissance: Result & Stats

Motema Pembe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Renaissance

11/20/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Motema Pembe49%

×Draw28%

Renaissance23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motema PembeExpected goals in this matchRenaissance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.82

Motema Pembe

1.34

Renaissance

0.82

Motema Pembe creates 63% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 69 away

1.41

creates per match

0.77

0.88

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Motema Pembe

1.41

Renaissance

0.77

allows per match

Motema Pembe

0.88

Renaissance

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Renaissance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw

77%

Motema Pembe or Renaissance

72%

Draw or Renaissance

51%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+

23%

Renaissance wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals

74%

Motema Pembe 2+ goals

39%

Motema Pembe 3+ goals

15%

Renaissance 1+ goals

56%

Renaissance 2+ goals

20%

Renaissance 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)

68%

Renaissance (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Renaissance defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Renaissance attack 0.77 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Motema Pembe scores more

49%

level

28%

Renaissance scores more

23%

Motema Pembe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff