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Motema Pembe vs Maniema Union — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maniema Union
Maniema Union
10/17/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Motema Pembe33%
×Draw29%
Maniema Union38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.05
Maniema Union
1.15

Maniema Union creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 93 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Maniema Union
1.42

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Maniema Union
0.70

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Maniema Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
62%
Motema Pembe or Maniema Union
71%
Draw or Maniema Union
67%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
13%
Maniema Union wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
65%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
28%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
9%
Maniema Union 1+ goals
68%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
32%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
46%
Maniema Union (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
33%
level
29%
Maniema Union scores more
38%

Maniema Union at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Motema Pembe 1 – 1 Maniema Union

Motema Pembe and Maniema Union drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.