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Motema Pembe vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
9/20/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Motema Pembe50%
×Draw28%
Dauphins Noirs22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motema Pembe
1.39
Dauphins Noirs
0.83

Motema Pembe creates 67% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 77 away

creates per match

Motema Pembe
1.41
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

Motema Pembe
0.88
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

Motema Pembe+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motema Pembe ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Motema Pembe or draw
78%
Motema Pembe or Dauphins Noirs
72%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
50%

Winning margin

Motema Pembe wins by 2+
24%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Motema Pembe 1+ goals
75%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
40%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
16%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
56%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
20%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
69%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motema Pembe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.88 · 78 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motema Pembe attack 1.41 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Motema Pembe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Motema Pembe scores more
50%
level
28%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
22%

Motema Pembe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Motema Pembe 2–0 Dauphins Noirs

Motema Pembe beat Dauphins Noirs 2-0 in Ligue 1 on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.