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Moss vs Haugesund — 1. Division 2026

Moss
Moss
Preview
15:00
Haugesund
Haugesund
9/13/20261. Division1. Division · Round 22
42%
Haugesund
model favours
38%20%42%

Both sides lean high-scoring (85% and 82% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
80%
over 2.5 goals
78%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Moss38%
×Draw20%
Haugesund42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moss
2.09
Haugesund
2.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 8 away

creates per match

Moss
1.81
Haugesund
3.13

allows per match

Moss
1.30
Haugesund
2.38

finishing

Moss+0.00on par
Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 80Under: 2080%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 78No: 2278%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Moss or draw
58%
Moss or Haugesund
80%
Draw or Haugesund
62%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+
21%
Haugesund wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals
88%
Moss 2+ goals
62%
Moss 3+ goals
34%
Haugesund 1+ goals
89%
Haugesund 2+ goals
65%
Haugesund 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)
47%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Haugesund away — creates 3.13, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.81 + Haugesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.09

Haugesund attack 3.13 + Moss defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Moss scores more
38%
level
20%
Haugesund scores more
42%

Haugesund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Moss score first in only 15% of matches
  • 85% of Moss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Haugesund have scored in 11 games running
  • 82% of Haugesund’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Haugesund have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 77% of Moss’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moss
LLLWD
Haugesund
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moss face Haugesund (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Moss hosting Haugesund. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.