Morton 3–2 Queen's Park: Result & Stats

Morton

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Queen's Park

J. Baird 48'

G. Oakley 22', 20'

C. Shields 67'

G. Savoury 14'

2/11/2023

League #180 · Round 18Cappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Morton36%

×Draw25%

Queen's Park39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MortonExpected goals in this matchQueen's Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.48

Morton

1.42

Queen's Park

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

1.32

creates per match

1.35

1.61

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Morton

1.32

Queen's Park

1.35

allows per match

Morton

1.61

Queen's Park

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morton+0.00on par

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Queen's Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Morton or draw

61%

Morton or Queen's Park

75%

Draw or Queen's Park

64%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+

17%

Queen's Park wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals

76%

Morton 2+ goals

41%

Morton 3+ goals

17%

Queen's Park 1+ goals

77%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

43%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)

48%

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Queen's Park away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 1.32 + Queen's Park defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Queen's Park attack 1.35 + Morton defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Morton scores more

36%

level

25%

Queen's Park scores more

39%

Queen's Park at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. Thomson

11'

C. Waters

14'

G. Savoury↳ D. Thomas

20'

22'

45'

45+1'

48'

57'

S. Williamson← D. Thomas

57'

A. Healy← J. McPake

66'

G. Gillespie← L. McGrattan

66'

J. Davidson← J. Thomson

67'

C. Shields↳ T. Robson

74'

A. King← G. Oakley

82'

L. Grimshaw

85'

S. Eze← L. Kilday

Morton

Queen's

1

Ferrie

4

▼

Kilday

3

A

Robson

5

Fox

2

Oakley

11

A

▼

Thomas

8

▼

Thomson

42

Boateng

29

⚽

Shields

21

⚽

Savoury

10

▼

1

6

23

5

⚽

4

14

8

17

▼

McGrattan

9

Muirhead

22

⚽2

▼

Oakley

10

Quitongo

Manager: D. Imrie

66'▲G. Gillespie←▼L. McGrattan

74'▲A. King←▼G. Oakley

Morton substitutes

21Gillespie25King18Garrity2Pignatiello20Green12Ambrose11Miller7Roy

Manager: O. Coyle

57'▲S. Williamson←▼D. Thomas

57'▲A. Healy←▼J. McPake

66'▲J. Davidson←▼J. Thomson

85'▲S. Eze←▼L. Kilday

Queen's Park substitutes

19Williamson22Healy12Davidson66Eze18Biggar7Longridge27Jarrett9Henderson17Heraghty