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Morton vs Inverness CT — League Cup 2026

Morton
Morton
Preview
14:00
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
7/25/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageCappielow Park
Big match
72%
Morton
model favours
72%17%11%

Morton sit 34, Inverness CT 13 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Morton72%
×Draw17%
Inverness CT11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morton
2.35
Inverness CT
0.79

Morton creates 197% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Morton
2.50
Inverness CT
0.93

allows per match

Morton
0.64
Inverness CT
2.20

finishing

Morton+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Morton or draw
89%
Morton or Inverness CT
83%
Draw or Inverness CT
28%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+
49%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals
90%
Morton 2+ goals
68%
Morton 3+ goals
41%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
55%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
19%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)
87%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 2.50 + Inverness CT defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Inverness CT attack 0.93 + Morton defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Morton scores more
72%
level
17%
Inverness CT scores more
11%

Morton at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 36% of Inverness CT’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Morton
LLLD
CT
WWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Morton host Inverness CT

July 25, 2026: Morton take on Inverness CT in League Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Morton host Inverness CT at Cappielow Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.