Morton 1–1 Inverness CT: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Morton

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Inverness CT

G. Oliver 120+10' (pen)

R. Muirhead 120+8' (pen), 42'

C. Ugwu 120+5' (pen)

R. Lyon 120+4' (pen)

G. Reilly 120+2' (pen)

L. Jamieson 120+7' (pen)

S. Allardice 120+6' (pen)

R. McAlear 120+3' (pen)

A. Doran 120+1' (pen)

D. Devine 47'

12/7/2021

FA Cup · 3rd Round ReplaysCappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Morton51%

×Draw22%

Inverness CT27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MortonExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.39

Morton

1.98

Inverness CT

1.39

Morton creates 42% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.17

creates per match

2.10

0.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Morton

2.17

Inverness CT

2.10

allows per match

Morton

0.67

Inverness CT

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morton+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Inverness CT →

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Morton or draw

73%

Morton or Inverness CT

78%

Draw or Inverness CT

49%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+

29%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals

86%

Morton 2+ goals

59%

Morton 3+ goals

31%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

75%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

40%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)

65%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 2.17 + Inverness CT defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

Inverness CT attack 2.10 + Morton defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Morton scores more

51%

level

22%

Inverness CT scores more

27%

Morton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

T. Walsh← S. Welsh

42'

R. Muirhead↳ R. Lyon

47'

D. Devine↳ A. Doran

61'

R. McAlear← R. MacGregor

72'

L. Jamieson← B. McKay

76'

K. Broadfoot

120+1'

A. DoranPenalty

120+2'

G. ReillyPenalty

120+3'

R. McAlearPenalty

120+4'

R. LyonPenalty

120+5'

C. UgwuPenalty

120+6'

S. AllardicePenalty

120+7'

L. JamiesonPenalty

120+8'

R. MuirheadPenalty

120+9'

D. DevineMissed penalty

120+10'

G. OliverPenalty

Morton

Inverness

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽A

▼

⚽A

⚽

⚽

⚽2

⚽

Manager: G. MacPherson

Morton substitutes

17McGrattan24McGregor25King2Ledger19Easdale8Blues20Bysouth6Jacobs

Manager: W. Dodds

30'▲T. Walsh←▼S. Welsh

61'▲R. McAlear←▼R. MacGregor

72'▲L. Jamieson←▼B. McKay

Inverness CT substitutes

14Walsh23McAlear16Jamieson17McDonald21Mackay3Harper19Duku