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Moroka Swallows vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
5/29/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Moroka Swallows23%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moroka Swallows
0.80
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.29

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 61% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 119 away

creates per match

Moroka Swallows
0.98
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Moroka Swallows
1.05
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw
52%
Moroka Swallows or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
77%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
7%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
55%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
19%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
5%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
72%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
37%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
33%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.80

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more
23%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
48%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moroka Swallows vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Moroka Swallows and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Volkswagen Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.