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Mornar vs Jezero — First League 2019

Mornar
Mornar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jezero
Jezero
12/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Stadion SRC Topolica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Mornar44%
×Draw29%
Jezero27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mornar
1.24
Jezero
0.89

Mornar creates 39% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mornar
1.22
Jezero
0.91

allows per match

Mornar
0.87
Jezero
1.26

finishing

Mornar+0.00on par
Jezero+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornar ↓

Jezero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mornar or draw
73%
Mornar or Jezero
71%
Draw or Jezero
56%

Winning margin

Mornar wins by 2+
20%
Jezero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mornar 1+ goals
71%
Mornar 2+ goals
35%
Mornar 3+ goals
13%
Jezero 1+ goals
59%
Jezero 2+ goals
22%
Jezero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mornar (draw refunded)
63%
Jezero (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mornar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 91 matches

Jezero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.26 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mornar attack 1.22 + Jezero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Jezero attack 0.91 + Mornar defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mornar scores more
44%
level
29%
Jezero scores more
27%

Mornar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mornar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mornar 2 – 1 Jezero

Mornar beat Jezero 2-1 in First League on December 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SRC Topolica in Bar.