Mornar 0–0 Jedinstvo: Result & Stats | First League

Mornar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jedinstvo

3/9/2024

First League · Round 24Stadion SRC Topolica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Mornar49%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MornarExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.02

Mornar

1.54

Jedinstvo

1.02

Mornar creates 51% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 73 away

1.22

creates per match

1.18

0.87

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Mornar

1.22

Jedinstvo

1.18

allows per match

Mornar

0.87

Jedinstvo

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mornar+0.00on par

Jedinstvo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornar ↓

Jedinstvo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mornar or draw

75%

Mornar or Jedinstvo

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo

51%

Winning margin

Mornar wins by 2+

25%

Jedinstvo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mornar 1+ goals

79%

Mornar 2+ goals

45%

Mornar 3+ goals

20%

Jedinstvo 1+ goals

64%

Jedinstvo 2+ goals

27%

Jedinstvo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mornar (draw refunded)

66%

Jedinstvo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mornar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 91 matches

Jedinstvo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mornar attack 1.22 + Jedinstvo defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jedinstvo attack 1.18 + Mornar defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mornar scores more

49%

level

26%

Jedinstvo scores more

25%

Mornar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mornar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff