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Mornar vs Drezga — Second League 2019

Mornar
Mornar
FT
0 – 1
Drezga
Drezga
9/4/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion SRC Topolica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mornar65%
×Draw22%
Drezga14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mornar
1.86
Drezga
0.71

Mornar creates 162% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mornar
1.85
Drezga
0.82

allows per match

Mornar
0.61
Drezga
1.88

finishing

Mornar+0.00on par
Drezga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornar ↓

Drezga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mornar or draw
86%
Mornar or Drezga
78%
Draw or Drezga
35%

Winning margin

Mornar wins by 2+
39%
Drezga wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mornar 1+ goals
84%
Mornar 2+ goals
55%
Mornar 3+ goals
28%
Drezga 1+ goals
51%
Drezga 2+ goals
16%
Drezga 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mornar (draw refunded)
83%
Drezga (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mornar at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.61 · 33 matches

Drezga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mornar attack 1.85 + Drezga defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Drezga attack 0.82 + Mornar defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mornar scores more
65%
level
22%
Drezga scores more
14%

Mornar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mornar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mornar 0 – 1 Drezga

Drezga beat Mornar 1-0 in Second League on September 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion SRC Topolica in Bar.