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Mornar vs Buducnost Podgorica — Cup 2020

Mornar
Mornar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
11/1/2023CupCup · Quarter-finalsStadion SRC Topolica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mornar36%
×Draw25%
Buducnost Podgorica39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mornar
1.38
Buducnost Podgorica
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Mornar
1.57
Buducnost Podgorica
2.18

allows per match

Mornar
0.71
Buducnost Podgorica
1.18

finishing

Mornar+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornar ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mornar or draw
61%
Mornar or Buducnost Podgorica
75%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
64%

Winning margin

Mornar wins by 2+
16%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mornar 1+ goals
75%
Mornar 2+ goals
40%
Mornar 3+ goals
16%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
77%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
42%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mornar (draw refunded)
48%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mornar at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mornar attack 1.57 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.38

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.18 + Mornar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mornar scores more
36%
level
25%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
39%

Buducnost Podgorica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Mornar 2–2 Buducnost Podgorica

Mornar and Buducnost Podgorica drew 2-2 in Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SRC Topolica in Bar.