Mornar 0–1 Buducnost Podgorica: Result & Stats

Mornar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Buducnost Podgorica

5/25/2023

First League · Round 36Stadion SRC Topolica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Mornar32%

×Draw27%

Buducnost Podgorica40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MornarExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.31

Mornar

1.14

Buducnost Podgorica

1.31

Buducnost Podgorica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 123 away

1.22

creates per match

1.75

0.87

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Mornar

1.22

Buducnost Podgorica

1.75

allows per match

Mornar

0.87

Buducnost Podgorica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mornar+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mornar ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mornar or draw

60%

Mornar or Buducnost Podgorica

73%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

68%

Winning margin

Mornar wins by 2+

13%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mornar 1+ goals

68%

Mornar 2+ goals

32%

Mornar 3+ goals

11%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

73%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

38%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mornar (draw refunded)

44%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mornar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 91 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mornar attack 1.22 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Mornar defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mornar scores more

32%

level

27%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

40%

Buducnost Podgorica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff