Moreton Bay United 1–1 Eastern Suburbs

Moreton Bay United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Eastern Suburbs

9/1/2020

Queensland NPL · Round 25Wolter Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Moreton Bay United47%

×Draw20%

Eastern Suburbs33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Moreton Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchEastern Suburbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.86

Moreton Bay United

2.25

Eastern Suburbs

1.86

Moreton Bay United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 82 away

2.20

creates per match

1.77

1.95

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Moreton Bay United

2.20

Eastern Suburbs

1.77

allows per match

Moreton Bay United

1.95

Eastern Suburbs

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moreton Bay United+0.00on par

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreton Bay United ↓

Eastern Suburbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Moreton Bay United or draw

67%

Moreton Bay United or Eastern Suburbs

80%

Draw or Eastern Suburbs

53%

Winning margin

Moreton Bay United wins by 2+

28%

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Moreton Bay United 1+ goals

89%

Moreton Bay United 2+ goals

65%

Moreton Bay United 3+ goals

39%

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals

84%

Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals

55%

Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Moreton Bay United (draw refunded)

59%

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreton Bay United at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.95 · 64 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreton Bay United attack 2.20 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Moreton Bay United defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moreton Bay United scores more

47%

level

20%

Eastern Suburbs scores more

33%

Moreton Bay United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moreton Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff