Moreland Zebras vs Manningham United Blues — Victoria NPL 2 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 29+ matches
Moreland Zebras47%
Manningham United Blues31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Moreland Zebras creates 27% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Moreland Zebras ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches
Manningham United Blues away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Manningham United Blues defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.88
Manningham United Blues attack 1.69 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Moreland Zebras at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Bentleigh Greens
Sunshine Georgies
Melbourne City II
Western United II
Brunswick City
North Sunshine Eagles
Melbourne Srbija
Bulleen Lions
Northcote City
LangwarrinManningham United Blues
Eastern Lions
Kingston City
Moreland CityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Moreland Zebras host Manningham United Blues on Friday, 23 April 2021 at 00:00. The match is part of the Victoria NPL 2 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: Moreland Zebras vs Manningham United Blues
Moreland Zebras beat Manningham United Blues 4-3 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 23, 2021.
The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.