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Moreirense vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Moreirense
Moreirense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
3/2/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 24Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Moreirense41%
×Draw28%
Rio Ave31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreirense
1.29
Rio Ave
1.09

Moreirense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 16 away

creates per match

Moreirense
1.01
Rio Ave
0.68

allows per match

Moreirense
1.51
Rio Ave
1.57

finishing

Moreirense+0.30scores more
Rio Ave+0.32scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw
69%
Moreirense or Rio Ave
72%
Draw or Rio Ave
59%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+
18%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals
72%
Moreirense 2+ goals
37%
Moreirense 3+ goals
14%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
66%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
30%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)
57%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 1.01 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Moreirense defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moreirense scores more
41%
level
28%
Rio Ave scores more
31%

Moreirense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moreirense vs Rio Ave

Moreirense and Rio Ave drew 0-0 in Primeira Liga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos.