Morecambe 0–1 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Morecambe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Walsall

S. Sinclair 4'

9/17/2019

League Two · Round 9Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Morecambe37%

×Draw27%

Walsall36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MorecambeExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Morecambe

1.27

Walsall

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 156 away

1.24

creates per match

1.13

1.34

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Morecambe

1.24

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Morecambe

1.34

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw

64%

Morecambe or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

63%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+

16%

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals

72%

Morecambe 2+ goals

36%

Morecambe 3+ goals

14%

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)

51%

Walsall (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Walsall attack 1.13 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Morecambe scores more

37%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

36%

Morecambe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

R. Gaffney

Walsall · F

7.6

Match Events

4'

S. Sinclair

54'

Gary Liddle

73'

C. Stockton← S. Miller

73'

A. Leitch-Smith← K. Ellison

75'

79'

83'

84'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MorecambeWalsall

Overview

51%Possession49%

5Total Shots15

6Corners8

16Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots15

0On Target5

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

0Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

389Total Passes372

247Accurate Passes244

63%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2