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Morecambe vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
K. Woolery 74'
1/30/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Globe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Morecambe41%
×Draw27%
Tranmere32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.35
Tranmere
1.16

Morecambe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 144 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.24
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Morecambe
1.34
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
68%
Morecambe or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
59%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
19%
Tranmere wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
74%
Morecambe 2+ goals
39%
Morecambe 3+ goals
15%
Tranmere 1+ goals
69%
Tranmere 2+ goals
32%
Tranmere 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
56%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.24 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Morecambe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Morecambe scores more
41%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
32%

Morecambe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
O. KhanTranmereTranmere · D
7.7

Match Events

45'
Yann Songo'o
46'
D. Lloyd← N. Kirby
62'
Ryan Cooney
65'
Jay Spearing
74'
K. Woolery↳ D. Lloyd
81'
H. Davis← Carlos Gomes
87'
B. Lyons← J. OSullivan
89'
L. Ridehalgh← K. Woolery
90'
Stephen Hendrie
90+1'
L. McAlinden← S. Lavelle

Possession

27%Morecambe

Shots

8Morecambe

Pass accuracy

39%Morecambe

Statistics

MorecambeTranmere
Overview
27%Possession73%
8Total Shots21
1Corners10
11Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots21
0On Target3
7Off Target10
1Blocked8
6Inside Box12
2Outside Box9
Passing
27%Possession73%
225Total Passes577
116Accurate Passes478
52%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

League Two: Morecambe 0–1 Tranmere

Tranmere beat Morecambe 1-0 in League Two on January 30, 2021.

Goals: K. Woolery (74').

Tranmere controlled possession (73%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Globe Arena in Morecambe, Lancashire.